Economic stress, measured against its own normal.
Each currency, energy price and food price is compared with its own past changes. An item is marked unusual only when the move is far outside that range. These are measurements, not forecasts and not investment advice.
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Outside the normal range
Robust z of 3.5 or more against the series' own history, and a move above the lane's floor.
Currencies against the US dollar
Five business days. ECB reference rates, which cover about 30 currencies and not the rouble.
Energy
Five trading days. EIA spot prices, a day or two behind.
FAO food price indices
Change on the month; 2014–2016 = 100. FAO revises earlier months.
Local food prices in watched countries
Median three-month change across each country's market price series. Nominal prices in local currency, from WFP. Data arrives one to three months late.
Sanctions lists
What changed between Headwind's own readings of each official list. People and organizations are counts only; their names are on the publisher's list. Vessels are named, with their IMO numbers. The date is when Headwind saw the change, not the date of the designation.
Export-control and sanctions rules
Rules and proposed rules published in the US Federal Register by BIS and OFAC in the last 60 days, as the agencies titled them.
US export-control and screening lists
The Entity List and the other US Commerce, State and Treasury lists, read from trade.gov's Consolidated Screening List. What changed between Headwind's own readings, as counts by the address country each list gives. Counts only; the names are on the publishers' lists. An entry a publisher edits can count as one removed and one added.
US import reliance for mineral commodities
Net import reliance is imports less exports, adjusted for stock changes, as a share of US consumption. Figures are annual, from the US Geological Survey, and are copied as published.
Coming dates
From the publishers' own schedules. US inflation and jobs dates are not covered yet.
Sources and their state
A source that failed shows its last good copy and says so.